Expect Romo, Timberlake to break 100 at Torrey Pines
Prior to the U.S. Open each year, I put together a ranking of all 156 players in the field — a list of both educated and not-so-educated guesses that at least gets readers talking about the upcoming event. (My ranking for this year’s tourney will be posted on Wednesday.) Once in a while, I’ll get one right; maybe I’ll pick, say, Dean Wilson in 51st place and lo and behold he actually finishes No. 51 for the week.
Those right answers, however, are few and far between. Fact is, it’s near-impossible to handicap a golf tournament, where so many factors can lead to so many unpredictable circumstances.
But at least those guys are professionals. I can base their performance probability on past experience at the event and recent history.
The same can’t be said for the foursome which will take part in the Golf Digest U.S. Open Challenge at Torrey Pines’ South Course on Friday. You’ve no doubt heard about this contest, in which the magazine received 56,374 entries from people hoping to play the Open venue from the tips the week before the event. (If not, you can read all about it here.) The «winner» — and I use that term loosely, as most top-level pros dread the ghastly beast that is this course — was John Atkinson, an 8.1-handicapper from Omaha, Neb., who will tee it up with celebrities Justin Timberlake, Matt Lauer and Tony Romo on a track that maxes out at 7,643 yards. The goal? To see if anyone can break 100.
Using each player’s indexes and recent scores from the Golf Handicap Information Network (GHIN), let’s attempt to predict their final scores:
Justin Timberlake: Perhaps the former *NSYNC singer has been too busy bringing sexy back during the last three years, but he’s failed to post a score since Nov., 2005. Timberlake is listed as a 3.0 handicap, though each of his 20 most recent scores — ranging from 77 to 86 — have come at his home course, Spring Creek Ranch in Collierville, Tenn. (course rating 74.1; slope 139), meaning we should be wary of his game away from the friendly confines.
Then again, he’s one of only four people to serve as host of his own PGA Tour event this year, with the inaugural Justin Timberlake Shriners Hospitals for Children Open coming this October to Las Vegas. The other three hosting events in 2008 are Arnold Palmer, Jack Nicklaus and Tiger Woods. (Even teeny-bopper, boy-band fans know that’s pretty good company in the golf world.)
And supposedly this isn’t just a one-and-done scenario for Timberlake, who’s said in recent years that he’d like to try and qualify for the PGA Tour someday. A source close to the entertainer said last April, «He practices every day, has a coach and takes his clubs wherever he goes.»
If he’s as serious about his golf as the source says, I can only imagine Timberlake has been practicing for the festivities at Torrey. Here’s saying he has a knee-knocker on 18 to keep it in double-digits.
Prediction: 99
Matt Lauer: The «Today Show» host obviously likes his golf, as evidenced by his memberships at four private clubs in the greater New York area — The Stanwich Club, Deepdale GC, Sebonack GC and Hamilton Farm GC. He’s currently listed as a 6.2 — up a half-stroke from the end of last summer. Looking at his last 20 postings, I’m guessing he’s still telling buddies about that 76 he shot last June; it’s one of only two scores listed below 80.
The bad news for Lauer is that it doesn’t quite look like his game is rounding into form for such a sizable undertaking at Torrey. He posted three scores last month — first an 85, then 87, then 91. Ask any down-in-the-dumps tour pro; regression can lead to depression when you’re playing lousy heading into the year’s biggest pressure-cooker.
Throw in the fact that Lauer, who must wake up around 3 a.m. for that 6 a.m. TV shift, will be undergoing a little jetlag and this won’t exactly be smooth sailing for the smooth host.
Prediction: 116
Tony Romo: For the third time in four years, the Dallas Cowboys quarterback tried to qualify for the U.S. Open … and for the third time in four years, he failed to progress past the first stage. But Romo hardly embarrassed himself, posting a 5-over 75 at the Golf Club of Dallas to miss out on a playoff for the second alternate spot by four strokes. («I found a good rhythm on the backside, but it just took too long to get started,» he said afterward. «I just haven’t been able to practice or prepare. I’ve got a lot of football stuff. That’s part of it.»)
His previous attempts yielded scores of 72 (last year) and 69 (in 2005) and though Romo’s last known official handicap was listed at 2.2, he must have shaved almost a full stroke off of that, as players must own a 1.4 index or lower in order to attempt to qualify for the U.S. Open. In layman’s terms, Romo is a baller on the course, not just the gridiron.
Prediction: 95
John Atkinson: All we know about the contest winner is what we’ve read. Atkinson was diagnosed with Stage IV lung cancer at age 38, despite never being a smoker. It’s affected him, sure, but it hasn’t adversely affected his golf game. «Last summer,» wrote Atkinson’s lifelong friend Terry Beutler in his initial essay to Golf Digest, «he had a double treatment of chemo and walked 18 holes the next day and shot a 76.»
Atkinson is currently listed as an 8.1 handicap, though he’s posted only three scores this year (and none since April) — an 85 and two 90s. He only owns one sub-80 round in his last 19 posted scores and that was a 78 in September on a course with a rating of 71.2 and slope of 130. The South Course will play, uh, just a tad more difficult. Atkinson is a great story and we’d all like to see him keep it under 100, but based on those numbers, the odds are against him.
Prediction: 121
Like I said, prognosticating the fortunes of pros isn’t easy. Trying to do it for a foursome of amateurs? Next to impossible. If nothing else, though, it will be interesting to watch.
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